Brilio.net/en - The latest electability survey conductedby Charta Politika confirms incumbent Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama and Deputy Djarot Saifuls lead in the upcoming election. Similar results have shown in other surveys conducted by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC)and Kompas Research and Development.
This recent survey shows Ahok-Djarot leading with 39 percent while Anies Baswedan-Sandiaga Uno trails behind them with 31.9 percent. Agus Yudhoyono and Sylviana Murni, who started with the highest electability when the campaign season started, are now in the last place with 21.3 percent.
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The three candidates started in relatively near positions, but Ahok-Djarot and Anies-Sandi managed to gain more support while Agus-Sylvis number kept going down.
A slide from Charta Politika's February survey on Jakarta Election.
Charta Politika/Charta Politika
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The survey also mapped voters preference throughout different social groups.
Ahok and Djarot top the survey in almost all gender, age, and religion groups, except among Muslims, where Anies and Sandi received the biggest share of support with 36.7 percent, while Ahok-Djarot only received 30.6 percent, and Agus received 23.9 percent.
The incumbents are also a favorite among people with different levels of education, from people who never went to school at all, who did not finish elementary school, to university graduates and. However, preferences among elementary school and junior high school graduates are anomalies to the general trend, as the former prefered Agus and the latter prefered Anies.
This survey also confirms the findings of other surveys that concluded that the debates had impact on determining voters preference.
More than 56 percent of respondents said that the debates were important and 80 percents of the respondents watched them. Respondents were also asked to pick candidates who performed the best during the second debate on Jan. 28. The incumbents also get the highest approval here with 36.9 percent of respondents saying that the pair performed better compared to the two other pairs.
But the big question here is whether poll results can accurately predict the election outcome tomorrow as only less than half of the respondents said that they already had a firm choice, while others might still change their minds during the cooling off period or even when they are inside the voting booth.
This survey was held on Feb. 3 to 8 involving 764 registered voters in Jakarta as respondents. The result has 3.5 percent margin of error and 95 percent confidence level.
The Jakarta election will be held tomorrow morning.