The Jakarta Election Saga Enters Its Most Painful Act

Monas in Jakarta surrounded by protesters. © AP/Tatan Syuflana

It might get better. It probably won't.

I live in Yogyakarta, away from the capital, but the hustle bustle surroundingJakarta's upcoming election is part of my daily life.

The electionis still weeks awaybut even from here the situation has been heating up for months - and it gets more complicated by the day.

Issues are spun and politicized as rivals and supporters attack each other.

The brutality of this fight should not be surprising, given that the election's outcome will likely set a course for the next Presidential Elections in 2019. The positions on offer are powerful and strategic.

The latest survey conducted in January by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting shows that none of the three candidates is in a position to win in the first round. Incumbents Basuki Tjahaja Purnama and Djarot Saiful top the survey with 34.8 percent, Agus Yudhoyono-Sylviana Murni are second with 22.5 percent and Anies Baswedan-Sandiaga Uno stay in the last position with 20.7 percent.

Meanwhile, to win the election in one round, a candidate must secure 50 percent of the vote. If the survey reflects the February election result, the poll will go to a second round, providing a stage for the top two candidates in a head-to-head race.

I seeAhok-Djarot and Agus-Sylvi, who've ledin almost every survey, advancing to the second round.

And when that happens, it will beeven moreintense political situation.

Ahok's blasphemy court case is far from overand no doubt it will become even more politicized. We can expect a bigger coalition of the other two candidates' supporters uniting against Ahokas well as a pitched battle on social media and a tidal wave of fake news.

But I could be wrong too.

One of the anti-Ahok frontmen, Islam Defender Front Chief Rizieq Shihab was named a suspect for alleged defamation of state ideology Pancasila and founding father Soekarno this week. He is also still facing other allegations including defamation of Christianity, insulting the national currency and of course, the latest rumor regarding his affair with Firza Husein, who herself is accused oftreason. All of these perhaps could change the game. Or not.

Well, at this stage, who knows? Anything can happen.

I'll be watching with popcorn.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect Brilio's.

(brl/red)