“This country could be in line for some BIGLY deals.”
9 November 2016 19:19
Doom and gloom is the generaldiagnosis of Trumps victory. A campaign of hate speech tainted with allegations of sexual assault, tax evasion and almost everything. Incidents so regularly offensive the whole world took notice on a daily basis.
No-one, at least around me, is striking a positive note. But, doesn't it look good for Indonesia?
When Trump was talking about banning Muslims, he wasnt really talking about Indonesians -. When he was talking about trade deals he was talking about China and Japan. When he was talking about immigration he was talking about Mexico. Indonesia may be set to receive a dividend for being off the US radar.
Donald Trumps campaign has been pragmatic above all else. Inflammatory rhetoric won him the Republican base, endless media coverage and the partys nomination. Attacks on his adversaries and appealing to peoples anger with the status quo won him the presidency. What does he stand to gain from a bad relationship with Indonesia? Why would he have one now?
Yes, Trump was extraordinarily offensive about Muslims and Islam. A visit to Indonesia, home to the worlds biggest Muslim population, is not the smartest idea, but it doesnt matter.
Lets start with security.
US accounts for a majority of the world's military spending and Trump has been none too happy about how much allies have been spending, but Trump's gripe was with NATO allies not living up to their commitments.
Ahok politicking aside, Indonesia is a reliable ally against ISIS, terrorism and extremism. It has maintained the hard line it took up post-Suharto following the Bali bombings in the early 2000s and later hotel bombings. Indonesian forces killed that thorn in their side Santoso over the summer and the fight against his influence continues.
Then there's foreign policy.
Indonesia has been a longtime US ally. Under Obama, longtime allies did not do brilliantly. Israel was furious about the Iran deal, Poland was left to fend for itself and the red line over Assad and chemical weapons turned to be as real as promises to close Guantanamo.
The real losers of US support in Asia are likely to be Taiwan (which America looks very unlikely to defend now) and the Philippines, which Duterte has already aligned to China. If Trump simply doesn't care about a Chinese attack on Taiwan, where is the power of China's threat over the US? Where is Philippine power over the disputed islands or land reclamation? In their own hands. Same with Japan, except with its level of economic development and boosting of its armed forces it looks likely to increasingly handle its own problems.
Finally, we have Trumps forte, and Indonesias biggest priority: Business (capital B).
From an Indonesian perspective, is Freeport going to be able to exert pressure on Trump? Of course not, he has been explicitly NOT beholden to corporate clients in his campaign. He owes them nothing.
Trump's tendencies mean he is likely to look on Indonesia's policies to support domestic industries favorably and offer support.
Pivot back West for a moment and look at the UK.
Brexit is likely to have Trump's support, and the UK is now in a strong position with the Democrats out of the White House to set up a strong deal with its closest ally. Obama implied Britain would be hurting its relationship with the US if it pulled out of the EU and expressly backed Remain. British voters expressly disagreed.
Just as China will work out a bilateral deal with the US, the UK will work out one for the EU and Indonesia, yet another.
Indonesia could set up a positive trade relationship with the United States, Taking oil and energy that it needs (and will need more of due to the drop off in exploration over the past decade) from the States and providing an export market for electronics and other consumer goods in exchange for access to export manufactured goods.
The bottom line is this: Indonesia is not Europe, it is not Clinton, it is not China, nor is it the Philippines, Pakistan, Putin or ISIS. Its a potential beneficiary on every front. You may not like Trump - and I do not - but this country could be in line for some BIGLY deals.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Brilio or any of its partners.
